Monday, April 30, 2012

Fun Housing Facts


Fun Housing Facts

The United States Census Bureau recently released some fun facts related to housing across the country, based on data for 2010. Here are just a few highlights from the release that you may find interesting…and may want to pass on to others.

Heating Our Homes
  • 57 million = Number of houses heated by utility gas.
  • 2.2 million = Number of houses heated by wood.
  • 38,010 = Number of houses heated by solar energy.
From Home to Work
  • 25.3 minutes = Average time workers across the country spent getting from home to work.
  • 31.8 minutes = Longest commute time in the nation, which belonged to Maryland residents.
  • 16.1 minutes = Shortest commute time in the nation, which belonged to North Dakota residents.
Home Sweet Home
  • 2,392 square feet = Average size of a single-family house built in 2010. That number was down      a little from 2,438 square feet in 2009.
  • 131.7 million = Number of housing units counted in the 2010 Census. Compare that to 37.2 million in the first housing census, which was conducted in 1940!
Bonus Fact!

The first housing census in 1940 featured 31 housing questions - including some we may find odd today, such as whether the house had a radio…toilets or an outhouse…electric lighting…and running water.

Conversely, the 2010 census only included two housing questions: (1) whether the home was owned or rented and (2) whether the respondent sometimes lived or stayed somewhere else. The number of housing questions in the census has dropped because we now ask a number of housing questions in the American Community Survey, which is sent to about 3 million households nationwide every year.

Over the years, housing has really changed. But regardless of the time or location, one thing remains the same…there's no place like home!

Monday, April 23, 2012

Mortgage Market Guide Vol. 10 Issue 17


Last Week In Review: There was a mix of good, bad, and downright ugly news. Find out how new home loans responded.


On the good side, Retail Sales in March rose by a nice 0.8%, as consumers bought all kinds of products across the board. And when stripping out autos, sales still grew. This adds to the increasing trend seen in January and February and is a good sign for our economy, as consumers don't spend when they aren't feeling optimistic about their financial situation.
"Bad news goes about in clogs, good news in stockinged feet." Welsh Proverb. And we certainly saw both good and bad news in the economic reports released last week. Here are the details...and what they mean for home loan rates.

But over in the manufacturing sector it was not as pretty a picture, as both the Empire State Manufacturing Index and the Philly Fed Index came in below expectations. This is largely being attributed to a global slowdown, and experts say that the outlook for our manufacturing remains positive…but just not accelerating at the present time. Things weren't as pretty in the housing sector either, as both Existing Home Sales and Housing Starts fell in March.

And things in the labor market were verging on ugly, as Initial Jobless Claims spiked sharply higher. The Labor Department reported 386,000 fresh Claims in the latest week, above the 375,000 that was expected...and well above the 350,000 range seen in recent weeks.

Also verging on ugly was news out of Europe. There is growing and very justified concern about Spain's ability to pay down debt, meet new budget deficit targets, and avoid a bailout or debt restructuring. The Spanish situation has prompted the G-20 (Finance Ministers and Central Bankers of the 20 largest economies) to urge the European Central Bank to do more to contain their debt crisis as it threatens global growth. And let's not forget that besides Spain, we still have France, Portugal, Ireland and Greece to deal with in future months and years.

So what does all of this mean for Bonds and home loan rates? There will likely be more safe haven trading into the relative safety of the US Dollar and US Bonds (which will benefit Mortgage Bonds, to which home loan rates are tied) as the uncertainty out of Europe escalates. And more bad economic reports here in the United States could add to this safe haven trading into our Bonds, just as more good economic news here would likely benefit Stocks at the expense of our Bonds and home loan rates.

This mix of factors will continue to impact the direction in which Bonds and home loan rates move in the weeks ahead. The takeaway is that home loan rates remain near historic lows and now continues to be a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast For The Week: The Fed meets, plus there's news on consumer confidence, housing, the state of the economy and more.

As you can see in the chart below, the mix of news last week benefitted Bonds and home loan rates. I'll be watching closely to see what happens this week.
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Apr 20, 2012)



The economic calendar this week will give the investor a broad view of the U.S. economy…but the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be front and center in the minds of investors. Here's a break down of what to watch:

  • Consumer Confidence will be released on Tuesday…with Consumer Sentiment set to be delivered on Friday.
  • Also on Tuesday, New Home Sales for March will be released, followed by Pending Home Sales for March on Thursday.
  • On Wednesday, Durable Orders - which are products that are supposed to last at least three years - will be released.
  • Initial Weekly Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday. The number of new claims has been steadily rising in the past month, which is not a good sign for the labor markets. So all eyes will once again be on this report.
  • On Friday, the first reading on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2012 will be announced.
Also on Friday, we'll see the Employment Cost Index, which measures the costs of hiring and paying the American workforce. Higher costs could lead to inflation pressures, which could push Bond prices lower and home loan rates higher.

In addition to those reports, this week's FOMC meeting will be closely watched by both the Bond and Stock markets for any clues on how the U.S. economy is holding up.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart above shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving - and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further - a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Mortgage Market Guide Vol. 10 Issue 16

Last Week in Review: Inflation news was released...and home loan rates responded.

 "Wild thing! You make my heart sing!" The Troggs. And that song lyric is certainly an apt description for the volatility in the markets these days, as the ups and downs have given people things to both sing and scream about. Here's what happened last week...and how home loan rates were impacted.
Inflation news hit the wires, with reports on both the wholesale and consumer levels. The wholesale-measuring Producer Price Index (PPI) showed that prices remained mostly unchanged during March. Remember, inflation hurts the value of fixed investments like Bonds (including Mortgage Bonds, to which home loan rates are tied)...so the lack of inflation on the wholesale side was good news for Bonds and home loan rates. 

Also helping Bonds and home loan rates last week was the tame inflation data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The headline reading for March was right in line with estimates. When stripping out volatile food and energy, the Core CPI was also inline with estimates...but the year-over-year number was 2.3%, just slightly higher than the previous reading of 2.2%.  While this raises eyebrows a bit, the Fed is still reiterating that inflation remains subdued. That being said, if the Core CPI continues to rise...which is indicative of inflation and as you can see in the chart…Bonds and home loan rates will have a tough time improving much further, regardless of other factors.

One key factor to keep an eye on is the labor market, as Initial Jobless Claims increased 13,000 to 380,000 for the week ending April 7. This marks the highest level since January, and the second highest reading for 2012. The Fed has acknowledged that job creations are short of their goals. In fact, last week Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen said that weakness in housing, the European debt crisis, and government spending cuts are likely to slow the pace of recovery and expansion. She did state that the Fed has plenty of stimulus tools to use, if economic conditions warrant another round of quantitative easing.

The bottom line is that many factors will impact the direction in which Bonds and home loan rates move in the weeks ahead. The good news is that home loan rates remain near historic lows and now continues to be a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week: Earnings season continues, plus look for reports on retail sales, manufacturing, housing and more.

 As you can see in the chart below, it's been a wild, volatile few weeks in the markets. I'll be monitoring all the news closely to see how the markets and home loan rates respond next.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Apr 13, 2012)


The calendar heats up this week with reports on sales, housing, jobless claims and manufacturing:
  • Right off the bat, Retail Sales will be reported on Monday - and investors will be able to gauge how consumer spending is holding up.
  • In manufacturing news, the Empire State Index out of New York and the Philadelphia Fed Index will be released on Monday and Thursday, respectively.
  • Housing will be in the news this week with Housing Starts and Building Permits for March being reported on Tuesday. Those reports will be followed by the Existing Home Sales report for March, which will be released on Thursday. 
  • The weekly Initial Jobless Claims report will be released on Thursday. The report released last week showed that jobless claims rose to their highest level since the week ending January 28. So the markets will be watching this week's release!
In addition to those reports, Corporate Earnings reports may influence the Stock markets - and as we know, the Bond markets usually move in the opposite direction.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart above shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving - and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further - a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

View: Have you ever needed to read an important text for work while you were driving? Now there’s an app for that.

No More Texting and Driving…There's an App for That!

A study by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration found that distracted driving was the leading cause in nearly 450,000 accidents and more than 5,000 highway deaths.

Unfortunately, one of the most distracting elements for drivers today is text-messaging technology. The good news is that technology can also help solve this problem. Services - like Drivesafe.ly - have sprung up that eliminate the need to read text messages AND eliminate the need to respond. That's good news regardless of whether you're receiving personal or business text messages.

Here's how it works...You download an application to your phone. Then, before you get in your car to drive, you simply turn the application on. When you receive a text message, the application actually reads it to you…automatically…and out loud. So there's no need to take your eyes off the road.

Better still... the application automatically sends a reply message stating that you are driving and will respond as soon as you reach a destination that allows you to safely reply.

The application can be used on a variety of phones and there are even different plans - including a free version of DriveSafe.ly as well as family and business plans.

If you receive a lot of text messages while driving, this could be one of the most important safety steps you do this year. Take a few minutes to check it out.

After all, this simple application could save your life or the life of someone you know. 

Economic Calendar for the Week of April 16 - April 20












As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

April Views You Can Use

Easy come. Easy Go? - We've all heard that famous line, but in today's economy good news doesn't come as easy as it seems to go away. For example, personal incomes don't seem to rise as quickly as inflation takes them away. And that's just the beginning of the news items coming and going. The articles below shed more light on those important topics


Personal Income Rose...Or Did It?

One of the most important elements of the economy is the consumer. After all, how much money consumers have, how much they're willing to spend, and how they feel about the economy as a whole can have huge implications on the flow of money to goods and services. And that flow of money, in turn, impacts whether companies hire new employees to help meet the demand for their products and services.


Late last month, we received some mixed news. On the one hand, reports on Personal Income and Personal Spending came in near expectations. On the other hand, however, there's more to those numbers than meets the eye.


One element that isn't getting much news is the impact of inflation on consumer incomes. For example, let's take a look at the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation--the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, which measures inflation at the consumer level. This report met expectations last month...but only when volatile products like energy and food weren't factored in. When energy and food were added into the calculation, we actually saw a slight rise in inflation.


Now, let's go back to Personal Income to see why inflation matters. When we subtract the rise in Personal Income from the rise in inflation, we see that income actually declined slightly because prices went up more than income. And this isn't the only month that has happened. In 3 out of the last 4 months, we have seen incomes decline when we consider the impact of inflation on income. The rise in fuel prices is a big culprit in this negative trend and it highlights how high oil prices can be a detriment to the economy.


In addition, the US savings rate declined to the lowest level in nearly 3 years. The big drop coming from the pickup in spending combined with the decline in income (if you have less income and you spend more, than the increased spending comes at the expense of savings).


The bottom line is that it's nice to see increased spending, but we are going to need an increase in income in order for the increased spending to continue. That said, there's still good news for people in the market for a home or refinance. Bonds and home loan rates remain at historic levels, which means now is still a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me know if I can answer any questions for you or someone you know.

What To Watch: Fed Meets Later This Month

With all the news about the economy and the potential concerns over future inflation, a big news item to watch is the Fed Meeting that will take place later this month. Here's what you need to know!


What is it? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of the seven Governors of the Federal Reserve Board and five Federal Reserve Bank presidents. The FOMC meets eight times a year in order to determine the near-term direction of monetary policy. Changes in monetary policy are now announced immediately after FOMC meetings.


When will it take place? The next meeting is scheduled to take place April 24-25, 2012.


Why does it matter? Last month's Fed Statement was not a glowing endorsement of the economy, but they did admit that things are improving in most areas except housing, which remains "depressed." While improvement in our economy is good, if this trend continues home loan rates could edge higher. Why? Because Stocks often benefit in strong economic times at the expense of Bonds (including Mortgage Bonds, which home loan rates are based on).


What to listen for this month? There are two important topics that some experts have been paying close attention to--one is the potential rise of inflation and the second is the possibility that the Fed will initiate another round of Bond buying (called Quantitative Easing or QE3). In terms of inflation, the Fed acknowledged that inflation could increase in the near-term, due to higher energy prices. Remember: higher inflation is never good news for Bonds as inflation hurts the return of a fixed investment. And we did see some hints of this. If hints of inflation pick up in the weeks or months ahead, this could hurt Bonds and home loan rates. In terms of QE3, the Fed didn't mention another round of Bond buying in last month's statement. But the markets will be keeping a close eye on the Fed this month for any hints about either of those topics.


I'll continue monitoring the Fed and any news that may impact the markets. If you have any questions about economic reports and how they impact home loan rates, please call or email me. I'm always happy to explain what's going on and how it impacts the rate you can get based on your unique situation.

30-Minute Workouts. When One Hour Is Too Much To Ask

Spring is in the air. For many people that means it's time to get outside and enjoy the warmer weather. But it can also mean it's time to start thinking about getting back in shape after the long winter months. If you're busy but want to start fitting a little exercise into your day or week, here are a few suggestions to help get you moving in the right direction. (Please Note: Always be sure to check with your doctor prior to beginning a new exercise routine!)


The Walk/Run Combo (40 minutes): Start off this routine with 5 minutes of stretching. Five minutes (when stretching) is longer than you think, so by the time you're done, you'll be ready to move your body. Next, it's on to the cardio portion of the workout. Some of you may like jogging, but it's not necessarily something everyone enjoys. If you identify with the latter, simply replace the running with either power-walking or a combination of walking and running.


The first step is to strap an old watch to your wrist. This way you know the exact amount of time that has elapsed. Head out for a run through your neighborhood, and, as soon as you hit the 15-minute mark, turn back. Like magic, you'll be home in a half hour. Spend an additional five minutes stretching, and you're done. The entire workout has only taken 40 minutes out of your day!


Once again, this technique works well for power-walkers and for interval running. Interval running is nothing more than alternating walking with running for specific amounts of time. Start with one minute of walking followed by one minute of running and so on, until you reach 30 minutes. As you get stronger, increase the amount of running time and decrease (if you wish) the amount of walking time.


Circuit Training (30 minutes + possible drive time to a gym): This workout is great for anyone with a gym membership, as well as those who have decent weight equipment sitting around in their garage. Chances are both have gone unused because of the preconceived notion that gym workouts take several hours. Not true. Circuit training combines weight training with cardio by featuring lighter weights, more repetitions, and less time in between sets. Here's how it works: Start by picking one exercise for each body part. For example, bench press for chest, military press for shoulders, curls for biceps, sit-ups for stomach, etc. Set them up in your desired order and that becomes your "circuit." Do one set of each exercise and without resting, continue on to the next exercise. Once you've completed the circuit, rest for 3 minutes and do it again. Concentrate on using lighter weights and keeping your repetitions in the 12 to 15 range. If you get through each circuit in 8 m inutes, and you rest for 3 minutes in between, your total workout time is 30 minutes. Add a few minutes for stretching, and you're toned and ready to face the world.


Play a Sport (30 to 45 minutes): Playing a little one-on-one basketball, swimming laps, or hitting a punching bag are amazing workouts. Don't be surprised at how quickly 30 minutes will pass when you combine your workout with some type of game or sport. The downside to this type of workout, however, is it usually requires either another participant or specific equipment. Make sure you really like the sport before investing too much time, energy, or money into making it part of your regular workout.


The Anywhere Workout (10 to 30 minutes): This is a good option for those days when you're extremely busy or stuck in a location where you can't utilize the aforementioned workouts. Start by stretching for a full 10 minutes. This should be vigorous stretching where you hold each stretch for 20 seconds. After that, if you feel up to it, spend the next 10 minutes alternating sets of push-ups and various forms of sit-ups (classic sit-ups, crunches, twists, etc.). If you still have the time and energy, then do several intervals with a jump rope. This underrated cardiovascular exercise can travel anywhere, and it will work wonders on your calves.


The most important thing you should take from this article is the notion that it's not necessarily important to pick just one workout. Use all of them. If you mix up your routine, don't be surprised if you end up working out more. You may also find that it's easier to set aside a half hour of your day, every day, than it was to set aside two hours, three to four times a week.

Q&A: Property Taxes?

QUESTION: Property taxes too high?


ANSWER: We may be at the height of income tax season, but hoping you'll be getting a refund isn't the only thing you should be thinking about this time of year...especially if you're a homeowner. That's because the National Taxpayers Union (a nonprofit citizen group) estimates that between 30 and 60 percent of properties are assessed for too high of a value, resulting in an incorrectly larger property tax bill.


Taking the time to review your property tax bill could save you a nice chunk of change. And the good news is that submitting an appeal can be a fairly simple process, but make sure to take the time to fill out all forms in advance and be prepared with your documentation if there is an in-person hearing that needs to take place. To help you out, the National Taxpayers Union offers a checklist that walks you through some important steps in the process.


If you have any questions that I can help with at this time, please call or email today. It will only take a few moments to discuss what's going in the markets and how it impacts your unique goals and situation.

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Mortgage Market Guide Vol. 10 Issue 15

Last Week in Review: The Jobs Report for March was released on Friday, but was it “Good” news?

Take this job and love it. And that's something that fewer than expected people are doing, according to last Friday's disappointing Jobs report. Here are the details...and what they mean for home loan rates. 
Last week's Jobs Report for March showed that 120,000 jobs were created, with 121,000 private gains offsetting modest government jobs losses. This was an utter disappointment, as expectations were for something north of 200,000 job creations.

The unemployment rate declined to 8.2%. While any decline in unemployment is good news, the figure does need to be taken with a grain of salt - especially in light of the significant headline jobs creation miss. The reason why: the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR), which removes some of the guesstimating and adjustments of the unemployment rate. That number (currently at a 30-year low) is a concern because if the LFPR continues to decline, it means we are seeing a smaller ratio of people working against the overall population. This will be another headwind to our already debt-laden government. 

While the Jobs Report was disappointing news for our economic recovery, Bonds (which thrive on weak economic news) improved on the news, including Mortgage Bonds, to which home loan rates are tied. And of course, the ugly headline jobs creation reading also renewed the talk of another round of Bond buying (Quantitative Easing or QE3)…even though the minutes from the March 13th Fed Meeting suggested there would be no QE3 unless the economy falters.

In addition, Bonds and home loan rates benefitted from the continuing debt rumblings in Europe. Not only has manufacturing there fallen for seven straight months, but Portuguese banks will unlikely meet recapitalization goals for 2012. Spain also has huge banking problems and will be in a recession this year and likely next year; plus Italy, Greece and Ireland are troubled as well. The debt in Europe is only becoming larger - and countries are contracting, while trying to cut spending. Bonds and home loan rates could continue to benefit if investors move their money into what is seen as the safe haven of our Bond Market.

Many factors will continue to impact the direction in which Bonds and home loan rates move in the coming weeks and months. The bottom line is that now continues to be a great time to purchase or refinance a home, as home loan rates still remain near historic lows. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week: Two important inflation reports are ahead. Plus earnings season begins.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates benefitted from the disappointing Jobs Report. I'll be watching the news closely to see which way they move next.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Apr 06, 2012)



















The markets will be open the entire week, despite the Easter and Passover holidays…and two reports stand out:
  • The economic calendar is light this week, but investors will be closely watching the Producer Price Index on Thursday and the Consumer Price Index on FridayHigher oil prices have fanned the flames for higher inflation in the short term says Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke…but in the longer term, it remains subdued.        
  • Initial Weekly Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday. Jobless claims fell to their lowest level in four years last week to 357,000.
  • On Friday the first reading of April Consumer Sentiment will be released.
In addition to those reports, corporate earnings will be in the news this week. Earnings reports are closely watched by investors around the globe. If the tone is positive, there could be a shift back into the Stock markets from the Bond markets, which in turn could push home loan rates higher. On the flipside, if earnings come in below expectations, Stocks could fall while Bonds could rise, in turn pushing home loan rates lower.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart above shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on. 

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving - and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.  

To go one step further - a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.  

View: Whether you’re traveling for business or pleasure, you never want to overpay for your hotel. Check out the article below for an important money-saving tip.

An Easy Way to Get a Refund if Your Hotel Price Drops

When you reserve a room through Tingo, you get money back if the price drops. 
By Cameron Huddleston, Kiplinger.com

What if you found out that the hotel room you booked was $50 cheaper when you checked in? How about $100 less -- or maybe even $500?

Hotels lower their rates more often than you might suspect, and a new Web site is helping travelers cash in on those price drops. Launched in March by Smarter Travel Media (a TripAdvisor company), Tingo automatically rebooks your room at the lower rate if the hotel drops its price. Then you'll get a refund for the difference.

Americans could have saved nearly $314 million in 2011 if they had taken advantage of these price drops, according to data collected by Tingo. The average price drop is $35, but it can be much more. For example, the price on a two-night stay at the Wynn Las Vegas booked January 27 had dropped $519 by February 23.

To take advantage of Tingo's price-drop refunds, you have to book at a hotel designated as "Money Back." But that doesn't mean you're limited to just a few hotels. Tingo's worldwide hotel inventory is powered by Expedia, and more than 95% of the hotels offer the opportunity for refunds.

After you book a room, Tingo will track your rate and send you an e-mail if the hotel lowers the price for any component of your stay. You'll get a new confirmation number, and your refund will appear on your credit card after you check out. Tingo does not charge any fees for rebooking your room.

Reprinted with permission. All Contents ©2012 The Kiplinger Washington Editors. Kiplinger.com 

Economic Calendar for the Week of April 09 - April 13












As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Mortgage Market Guide Vol. 10 Issue 14

Last Week in Review: It was a volatile week, from news both here at home and overseas. But how did home loan rates fare?

To "QE" or not to "QE" - that is the question. And that pun on Shakespeare's famous quote is likely one that the Fed is weighing carefully these days, as they work to determine the best decisions for our economy. Read on to learn why...and what the impact could be on home loan rates.
Last week, Personal Income and Spending came in close to expectations. While that is good news, one negative within this report that is something to consider is the inflation-adjusted income. As you can see in the chart, Personal Income rose by 0.2%. But after factoring in the 0.3% rise in headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (which includes energy and food), income actually declined by 0.1%. We have seen incomes actually decline on an inflation adjusted basis three of the past four months. The rise in fuel prices is a big culprit for this negative trend and it highlights how high oil prices can be a detriment to the economy.

In addition, the final reading of 4th Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2011 remained at 3.0%, a decent number. However, for 2011 overall, GDP was an anemic 1.625%, well below the number needed for a normal functioning economy.

These factors -- combined with recent weak data from the housing sector and a discouraging bounce higher in last week's Initial Jobless Claims Report -- are all reasons that could make the Fed consider doing another round of Bond buying (Quantitative Easing or QE3).

Remember: Home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds...so as Bonds improve, home loan rates improve...and helping the housing market by keeping home loan rates low would be a big reason that the Fed would do another round of QE. Another key factor to keep in mind when it comes to whether Bonds and home loan rates will improve is the safe haven trade. The Eurodrama resurfaced front and center last week with the news from credit rating agency Standard and Poor's that Greece may have to restructure their debt again. Plus, there was news that Spain's GDP is already contracting, and the country is grappling with a 23% unemployment rate.

All this to say -- there are many factors at play which could impact the direction that Bonds and home loan rates move in the coming weeks and months. The important thing to take away is that home loan rates still remain near historic lows and now continues to be a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week: The Job Market will be front and center this week, with several important employment reports ahead.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Mar 30, 2012)















Employment reports will lead the news this week:
  • ISM Manufacturing Index will be released on Monday and gives the investor a broad look at manufacturing around the country.
  • Wednesday's ADP Employment Change will be the precursor to the government report on Friday.
  • Initial Weekly Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday. Jobless claims ticked up last week to 359,000 but the Labor Department said that the data includes the annual seasonal-adjustment revisions extending back five years, which led to the recent increases.
  • The data that the entire investing community will be watching and waiting for is Friday's Employment Report, which includes Non-farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Report. For the past three months, employers have added 244,000 new workers on average and this pace will have to continue in order to get back to a more normal functioning economy.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart above shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving -- and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further -- a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart above, Bonds and home loan rates benefitted from the drama in Europe and some weaker economic data last week. It's a volatile time in the markets and I'll be watching developments closely.

View: If you still have to file your taxes, or if you know anyone who still does, be sure to check out the tips below.

3 Things to Know About Filing Your Taxes

It's that time again...tax season! But this yearly ritual actually changes each year in small, but important ways. Here are just 3 things you need to know about filing your taxes this time around:

1. Two Extra Days to File!
This year, April 15 falls on a weekend, so that pushes the deadline into the following week. But, that's not the end of the story. This year, Emancipation Day--which is a legal holiday in the District of Columbia--will be observed on Monday, April 16. And since the tax deadline cannot fall on a holiday, it means the due date for filing your tax return is extended to Tuesday, April 17, 2012.

2. Extension to Make IRA Contributions!
In addition to the tax deadline being extended by two days, the deadline to contribute to your IRA is also extended to Tuesday, April 17, 2012. Along with this announcement, the IRS put together a list of 10 things you need to know about setting aside retirement money in an IRA.

3. Options for Paying Uncle Sam!
If you're experiencing money troubles and you owe money on your taxes from last year, you may be eligible to receive a 6-month extension on your payment. And you may be surprised to learn about the details of this program! Read about the important qualifications and implications of the IRS announcement.

Need even more news on taxes and the IRS? No problem! You can "Follow" the IRS on Twitter or "Like" the IRS on Facebook!

Economic Calendar for the Week of April 02 - April 06

As your mortgage professional, I am sharing the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.